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To be understood, the chronicle of the last few hours in the Middle East must be read counter-clockwise. The killing of Ismail Haniyeh, political leader of Hamas, is chronologically subsequent to the killing of Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah's top military commander: in fact, Haniyeh was Israel's main target.
For three reasons.
The first: his death provides Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with an achievement to 'sell' to Israeli public opinion and his ultra-religious and ultra-nationalist ruling coalition, in the time-tested style of targeted elimination of human targets deemed hostile.
The second: Haniyeh's disappearance deprives Hamas of its most politically prominent exponent, a figure involved in negotiations on the release of Israeli hostages in the Gaza Strip, as well as Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails. As much as it may seem contrary to any logic or humanitarian interest, this last aspect relieves the pressure on PM Netanyahu and his government, of the series: you cannot negotiate with Hamas, also because with the dead it is impossible to negotiate. The families of the hostages will have to live with it.
Third (but not least) reason: the elimination of Haniyeh in Tehran forces Iran's political and military leadership to consider very carefully whether the military response that should serve them to save face also carries with it the responsibility of a declaration of all-out war in the region.
How do I read the events of the last few hours in the Middle East?
The assassination of Fuad Shukr in the southern suburbs of Beirut - which also cost the life of five civilians, among them a mother and her two children - happened earlier in time, but politically and media-wise it took a back seat after the announcement of Haniyeh's death in Tehran.
Everyone expected Israel's announced retaliation after the death of 12 Druze children in Majdal Sham, on the occupied Syrian Golan Heights. Tel Aviv blamed Hezbollah (which however denies any responsibility) for the rocket that fell on the football field. Even last night, immediately after the attack against Hezbollah's top military leader, the Israeli Armed Forces issued a communiqué suggesting that they considered the issue of the "murdered Druze children" closed and the related reprisal over.
It cannot be ruled out - and indeed I believe that this is exactly what happened - that this may have contributed to lowering the level of alarm and vigilance of the regional actors directly involved in the conflict with Israel, in particular Iran, which hosted Haniyeh at the inauguration of the new president.
As I wrote on 23 July, the dead children in Majdal Sham count for nothing in this new phase of the conflict between Israel, Iran and its regional affiliates. They have, at best, served as a pretext for Israel to rig the cards.
The real target was Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. Fuad Shukr, although a top Hezbollah military figure, was a diversion. And like all diversions, he came first in time.
One final note.
Fuad Shukr was wanted by the US with a $5 million bounty for each report and information for his role in the 1983 Beirut bombing that cost the lives of nearly 300 US soldiers.
It cannot be ruled out that in exchange for this easily camouflaged 'favour' in the current regional context, the White House authorised Israel to eliminate Haniyeh in Tehran, although Washington assures it was kept in the dark.
Is it political fantasy?
No. It is the Middle East.
(gianluca grossi)